The deficit for the first five months of the year stood at 96 per cent of the full-year target of Rs 5.46 lakh crore despite cut in capital expenditure in August.
Is the worst over for Indian banks? The past two years saw them ride on treasury trades as deposits soared and credit growth dipped sharply. Gross and net non-performing assets (NPAs) moved south, and the provision coverage ratio (PCR), capital buffers, and profitability indicators are back at pre-pandemic levels. So, what's the plot ahead?
The substantially increased economic dualism may exert lasting negative influences which could include a reduced potential for economic growth; the persistence of a very weak employment and poverty situation; rising social and political discord; and heightened vulnerability to geopolitical challenges, cautions Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
The real estate sector might have been caught off guard by the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, but large listed developers like Godrej Properties and Prestige Estates Projects soldier on undeterred. They aim to have sales bookings of Rs 10,000 crore in the next few years.
Chief statistician T C A Anant says growth figure might go up once indirect tax data is fully in, however, he agrees that private expenditure is yet to pick up
The employment situation remains dire. Whatever can be done to promote greater low-skill employment should be pursued aggressively, advises former chief economic adviser Shankar Acharya.
In fact, no other recent Union Budget has held so much significance for the Indian economy as the one to be presented in about six weeks from now, notes A K Bhattacharya.
While the five years of the Modi government have indeed seen a healthy increase in PSUs' outlay and the Budgetary support for them, the next year's numbers reveal the squeeze in the government's own resources even though it is expecting a much higher dividend income from the PSUs. These do not augur well for the PSUs in 2019-20 and the years ahead, unless these numbers are revisited and, hopefully, revised in the full Budget that will be presented later in July this year, says A K Bhattacharya.
The ripples from November 8 may be seen in next year's state budgets.
A change in the desire to buy consumer durables is perhaps the most important indicator of an economy changing direction, explains Mahesh Vyas.
The broad trends of GST collections will make you wonder if indeed the biggest indirect tax reform in the country has led to a real improvement in revenues, notes A K Bhattacharya.
'Health will continue to be at the centre of the government's attention as it underpins economic recovery and our collective well being.'
Enhanced revenue generation is a priority for the government.
The return of private investment now struggles with lack of funds and election-driven uncertainty.
Domestic ratings agency Icra on Monday forecast a 2 per cent GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2020-21, and a 7.3 per cent contraction for the full fiscal year. From a GVA or gross value added perspective, the agency pegs Q4 growth at 3 per cent and the full year contraction at 6.3 per cent. According to the agency, the 2 per cent projected GDP growth will help the economy avoid a double-dip recession as indicated by the National Statistical Office (NSO) for Q4. Icra's projection is better than the 8 per cent contraction forecast by the NSO as it sees Q4 growth at only 1.1 per cent.
Real estate buying dropped between 2004 and 2012.
The budget-making exercise offers golden opportunities despite challenges, observes Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
The Indian economy is rapidly normalising towards pre-pandemic activity levels, even as uncertainty exists about coronavirus mutations and repeated infection waves, industrialist Kumar Mangalam Birla said on Wednesday. Vaccination is picking up pace, which would improve India's resilience against a potential third wave, the chairman of Aditya Birla Group said while virtually addressing shareholders at the AGM of group firm UltraTech Cement Ltd. Moreover, various steps taken by the RBI and the government have helped in containing the economic disruptions of the pandemic, Birla added.
For a long time, the Indian economy has been drifting without a credible monetary anchor.
The 13th Finance Commission had last year set a capital expenditure-to-GDP target of 4.5 per cent by FY15.
Data shows that the PM's overseas travel bill reduced from Rs 140.14 crore to Rs 87.16 crore in the second year; data for third year is not available yet.
PM Modi on Sunday called upon states to "speed up capital expenditure and infrastructure creation" to spur economic growth.
The plea said there should be a total ban on such populist measures to gain undue political favour from voters as they violate the Constitution and the ECI should take suitable deterrent measures.
No new capacity addition is planned for 2018 and capital expenditure plans are on hold
'Even before the outbreak of the flu, it had become clear that the tax revenue numbers for 2019-2020 were overestimated,' observes A K Bhattacharya.
The bank is using readily available satellite images from ISRO and NASA for the purpose, and plans to scale up to 63,000 villages in the next three months.
Despite a slowing economy, the Budget does not envisage any major stimulus through the budgeted fiscal deficit figures, said Goldman Sachs.
'As valuations of large-caps appeared to be out of whack, investors started lapping up quality mid-caps and small-caps, which were available at relatively comfortable valuations.'
"Numerous rounds of talks have taken place with the Chinese counterparts to deescalate the situation without compromising on India's stand of 'complete disengagement and immediate restoration of status quo ante'," the defence ministry said.
Fitch Solutions sees RBI keeping benchmark interest rates unchanged during the fiscal to March 2022 following its decision to buy Rs 1 lakh crore of government bonds. "We had initially expected another policy rate cut to arrest the rise in government bond yields since the Union Budget announcement in February. "However, having an explicit bond purchase guidance from the RBI following the announcement of the G-SAP will also achieve a similar effect, if not even be more effective than a rate cut on capping the increase in bond yields," it said in a note. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held its policy repurchase (repo) rate unchanged at 4 per cent at its monetary policy meeting on April 7.
The Tata Sons' chief said that world's reliance on China for sourcing goods will reduce, and India will definitely have an opportunity to participate.
Despite warnings from a parliamentary panel, the list of tax exemptions in 2012-13 shows a rising trend.
The remarkable feature of those reforms unveiled in 1991 is that none of those decisions has been disowned by subsequent governments in the last 25 years.
'Election years tend to see high government expenditure on unproductive schemes, though that money sloshing around can boost private consumption.' 'Again, it can mean higher inflation,' explains Devangshu Datta.
The study, published in the journal Science on Wednesday, assessed the disease transmission patterns in 5,75,071 individuals exposed to 84,965 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the two states based on data collected by tens of thousands of contact tracers.
The strategy to achieve the target would be to maximise revenue collections and control expenditure, Chidambaram said, while seeking support of the political parties to deal with economic and financial problems facing the country.
They also warned that banks will start reporting higher non-performing assets after September, once the six-month moratorium on loan repayment ends.
The forthcoming Budget, the last full one before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, is expected to contain a number of sops and feel-good announcements, especially regarding social sector schemes.
The decision to permit the third child came after this month's once-in-a-decade census showed that China's population grew at the slowest pace to 1.412 billion amid official projections that the decline may begin as early as next year.
The statements come from a booklet published this month by the state-run People's Publishing House, in which senior officials, including President Xi, outlined the latest five-year plan for the country's development.
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